Mark Gritter (markgritter) wrote,
Mark Gritter
markgritter

Results for 237KK in the small blind

A long, long time ago I started trying to calculate the "S-C" number for 237KK in Kansas City Lowball. This is the stack size below which folding "cannot be correct" because even if your opponent plays perfectly then going all-in shows a profit. My simulation finally ended after 1300+ CPU-hours (I've thought of algorithmic improvements since then but kept letting it run.)

If the SB posts a $1 blind, and the BB posts a $2 blind, then SB can profitably push with this hand as long as his remaining stack is smaller than $11.948 (after posting). At $11.948 he will get called about 87% of the time.

The marginal hands BB folds at this point are things like 24JAsA (four-suited), 36TJsA, 678sKA, 25QsQA. He will call with slightly stronger holdings like 25AAA (unsuited) or 588QQ.

If SB's stack is $5.07 or less, BB can call the all-in with all of his hands. SB has a positive expectation of 57 cents.

If SB has just $1 left, his expectation from calling is a $0.86 profit.

If SB's stack is very large, BB calls the all-in with only about 53% of hands. For example, with $200 remaining, BB calls the push with 55% of hands and SB's expectation for the push is -$23. The hands on the margin for that stack size are things like 339TJ, 4469Q, 22236, or 23366.

An S-C number of 11.948 corresponds to Hold'em hands like J3s (12.040) or T6s (11.921).
Tags: lowball, poker, theory
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