Mark Gritter (markgritter) wrote,
Mark Gritter
markgritter

Betting on Peace (or at least on not-War)

In 2005 and 2006 the Foresight Exchange market in USIran (a US attack on Iran) was trading far above what I thought were reasonable levels. I didn't think there was anywhere near a 1/3rd likelihood that the U.S. could afford an attack on Iran, as long as the situation in Iraq stayed turbulent. And I thought that even the Current Occupant realized it.

So, I invested pretty heavily in selling 'yes'es, around 0.31-0.33 for a 1.00 contract. I set up some covering buys at lower price points and over the past year they've all been hit:

      Date	 Buy	Price	 Held	Balance	   BEP
 2006/02/03	-183	@  33	-1137	-757.72	  0.33   Last sale of 'yes' contracts
 2007/05/09	  96	@  26	-1041	-686.68	  0.34   
 2007/05/09	   4	@  26	-1037	-683.72	  0.34
 2007/05/12	 100	@  25	 -937	-608.72	  0.35
 2007/05/18	 100	@  23	 -837	-531.72	  0.36
 2007/05/18	 100	@  22	 -737	-453.72	  0.38
 2007/05/21	  10	@  21	 -727	-445.82	  0.39
 2007/05/22	   3	@  21	 -724	-443.45	  0.39
 2007/05/23	  87	@  21	 -637	-374.72	  0.41
 2007/05/23	   3	@  20	 -634	-372.32	  0.41
 2007/05/23	 107	@  20	 -527	-286.72	  0.46
 2007/12/08	  76	@  19	 -451	-225.16	  0.50
 2007/12/11	  24	@  19	 -427	-205.72	  0.52


So far, this has been my most profitable FX issue, with a return of 18.5% on an investment of most of my liquid fake-dollars. The only ones with greater percentage gains have been Amend (selling 'yes' for 0.20-0.27 on the issue of whether a constitutional amendment will pass by June 2009) and JMcR08 (betting against John McCain as the 2008 Republican candidate.) But I am tempted to close out the latter position.
Tags: foresight exchange, politics
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