Mark Gritter (markgritter) wrote,
Mark Gritter

Oh, micro-stakes poker

I played a 0.01 BTC heads-up Razz SNG today. The opponent seemed fairly competent, but the final hand made me question my own judgement of him.

I have 3860 chips with (68)9 and he has 2140 with (xx)K, at the 30/300/600 level. I raise, naturally, and Villain re-raises. I three-bet and it takes a few more raises to get him all-in.

Is there any hand I can reasonably have here that makes him even break-even? He had (A2)K which is fine for a steal defense, but a shove? Why not wait until 4th? Perhaps he was just tired of playing.
Razz (7-card Stud A-5 Low): 500000 sampled outcomes
cards         win   %win    lose  %lose  tie  %tie     EV
Ad Kd  2d  185344  37.07  314538  62.91  118  0.02  0.371
6c 9h  8h  314538  62.91  185344  37.07  118  0.02  0.629

I would need to have something like (JT) or (Q8) down before he becomes a favorite.
Tags: poker, razz
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